Trade Clash — Prediction Market Simulation
Built on Base | Powered by Polymarket
Core Mechanic
In normal prediction markets, you predict an event. In Trade Clash, your prediction becomes part of the event.
Six AI world leaders see live Polymarket odds—then see what thousands of players just bet. That crowd behavior ("The Hivemind") becomes input before the AI decides.
Every 3 Hours
Live Polymarket odds display (e.g., "Fed rate cut: 75%")
Players fast-swipe YES or NO for 2h 50min—Hivemind forms in real-time ("82% betting YES")
AI leaders process both signals through their personalities
Economic models calculate impacts: GDP shifts, trade retaliation, cascade effects
You win by predicting the outcome
You're predicting if AI Trump follows or fades an 82% crowd watching 75% Polymarket odds. The Hivemind is the game.
Six AI Leaders
🇺🇸 CEO Elon Gates (AmeriCorp) — Goes contrarian when Hivemind hits 85%+
🇨🇳 Chairman Margin Lei (MoonFactory) — Amplifies Polymarket-Hivemind splits. Remembers grudges for 5 rounds.
🇷🇺 President Pavel Gazpumpsky (PumpFederation) — Pure chaos. Usually does the opposite of what the Hivemind expects.
🇪🇺 Commissioner Christine Laglord (BailoutUnion) — Momentum follower. Trusts Hivemind over Polymarket.
🇦🇪 Chairman Ahmed Hodali (OilCoinEmirate) — Treats extreme consensus as exit liquidity. Will rug 80%+ positions.
🇸🇬 CEO Tony Shipton (NasiHoldings) — Ignores noise. Only reacts to big divergences.
All behavior rules are public. Learning when each AI fades the Hivemind—that's the edge.
How The Simulation Works
AI personalities filter inputs, then policy flows through real economic models:
Gravity model (trade volumes based on GDP, distance, relationships)
Melitz model (export impacts from firm productivity)
Tit-for-tat cycles (retaliation memory spanning 5 rounds)
Example: AmeriCorp cuts rates → currency weakens → MoonFactory loses market share → MoonFactory retaliates with tariffs in round 12 → trade patterns shift for 6 rounds.
Same Polymarket odds produce different outcomes based on Hivemind signal, retaliation history, and which AI decides.
Why $SIM: Outcomes from economic models + AI personalities, not house odds. All inputs, formulas, and decisions post on-chain.
Tournament Structure
7-day competitions. 56 rounds. 3-hour cycles.
Fast swipe YES/NO. 2-3 nations per round. Rankings by P&L. Top players split weekly $SIM prize pool.
Why It Works
Easy entry: Swipe on whether AI Trump follows the crowd or rugpulls them.
Skill emerges: Week one feels random. By tournament three, you're tracking grudges, spotting contrarian thresholds, reading patterns between Polymarket, Hivemind, and AI personalities.
Verifiable: Every input and calculation on-chain. No black boxes.
The Hivemind makes it strategic. The simulation makes it fair.
Current Traction
🏆 Won 1st place for new consumer app in Base's On-Chain Summer 📱 100,000 wallets 🎮 4 tournaments completed 💰 $2,000 USDC distributed
Quick Links
Getting Started
Quick Start Guide — Play your first round in 3 minutes
Understanding Polymarket + Hivemind — How the two signals work
Learn The AI
Meet The Six Leaders — Deep personality profiles
Leader Profiles & Behavior Triggers — Behavioral triggers and thresholds
Game Mechanics
Core Mechanics: The Reflexive Prediction Market — Complete game loop
Tournament Structure — 7-day competition format
Economic Systems Integration — How decisions cascade
Technical Deep Dives
System Architecture — Polymarket + Hivemind data pipeline
Chaos Observatory — 3D economic visualization
The AI sees Polymarket odds. The AI sees the crowd. Can you predict what it does next?
That's Trade Clash. Every 3 hours. Verifiable on-chain.
Built by Seroto Labs | Powered by Base | Launching on world.fun
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