Quick Start Guide
Play Your First Round in 3 Minutes
Trade Clash is a prediction market where the crowd becomes part of what you're predicting.
Step 1: Understand The Mechanic
Every 3 hours, a new round starts:
Polymarket odds display — Real prediction market shows base probability (e.g., "Fed rate cut: 75%")
You fast-swipe YES or NO — 2h 50min to make your prediction
The Hivemind forms — Live tracker shows what % of players bet YES (e.g., "82% betting YES")
AI sees both signals — Polymarket odds + Hivemind behavior become inputs
AI decides — Each leader's personality determines if they follow or fade the signals
You win or lose — Based on whether you predicted the AI behavior correctly
Key Insight: You're not predicting if the Fed will cut rates. You're predicting if the AI will vote YES after seeing 75% Polymarket odds and 82% Hivemind consensus.
Step 2: Learn The Six AI Personalities
Each AI has unique behavioral triggers:
🇺🇸 Gates (AmeriCorp): Contrarian at 85%+ Hivemind
🇨🇳 Lei (MoonFactory): Amplifies splits >15pt, 5-round grudge memory
🇷🇺 Gazpumpsky (PumpFederation): Chaos mode, usually opposite crowd
🇪🇺 Laglord (BailoutUnion): Follows Hivemind momentum >70%
🇦🇪 Hodali (OilCoinEmirate): Exit liquidity hunter at 80%+
🇸🇬 Shipton (NasiHoldings): Noise filter, reacts to >20pt divergence
Full behavioral details → Leader Profiles & Behavior Triggers
Step 3: Your First Prediction
Round Setup Example
Question: "Will the Fed cut rates this month?"
Current Signals:
Polymarket odds: 75% YES
Current Hivemind: 82% betting YES
Active AI: CEO Elon Gates (AmeriCorp)
Your Analysis
Check Hivemind level: 82% → Approaching Gates' 85% contrarian trigger
Check divergence: Only 7 points difference (small gap)
Check AI personality: Gates historically fades extreme consensus
Review context: No active grudges, normal economic conditions
Your Prediction
Decision: Swipe NO (bet Gates goes contrarian)
Reasoning: Hivemind at 82% is close enough to 85% trigger. Gates will likely fade the crowd and vote NO, implementing rate hikes instead.
3 Hours Later
Gates' Decision: Announces rate hikes instead of cuts ✅
Outcome: You predicted correctly!
Accuracy bonus: Correct prediction
Early timing bonus: You bet in first 30 minutes (1.5x multiplier)
Leaderboard: +150 points
Step 4: Skill Progression
Week 1-2: Pattern observation
Track AI decisions and outcomes
Notice Hivemind threshold approaches
Learn each leader's trigger points
Week 3-4: Context integration
Factor GDP stress and trade wars
Track multi-round grudge memory
Predict Hivemind momentum
Expert level: Second-order prediction
Predict how other players will bet
Forecast Hivemind final snapshot
Optimize tournament positioning
Tournament Structure
7 days per tournament
56 rounds total (8 rounds/day)
3-hour cycles
2-3 AI leaders active per round
Leaderboard
Ranked by cumulative P&L
Accuracy + timing bonuses
Consistency rewards
Prize Pool
Top players split weekly $SIM
Winners announced at tournament end
Immediately eligible for next tournament
Key Concepts
Polymarket
External prediction market where real money predicts real events. We use it as the "rational baseline" signal that AI sees.
Hivemind
Real-time aggregation of all Trade Clash player predictions. AI leaders see this percentage before deciding. This is the reflexive element—your bet becomes part of what the AI processes.
Reflexive Prediction Market
You're not just predicting an event. You're predicting how AI will respond to seeing crowd behavior. The crowd itself influences the outcome.
Fast-Swipe
The betting interface. Swipe YES or NO. Simple, fast, mobile-optimized. Locked in once submitted.
On-Chain Verification
All inputs (Polymarket odds, Hivemind %, economic state) and outputs (AI decisions, model calculations) posted to Base blockchain. Anyone can verify.
Economic Models
AI decisions flow through real economic theory:
Gravity model: Trade volumes
Melitz model: Export feasibility
Tit-for-tat: Retaliation cycles
Same Polymarket odds → different outcomes based on Hivemind + AI personality + economic context.
Pro Tips for New Players
Tip 1: Start With One AI
Don't try to learn all six at once. Focus on Gates or Laglord first (clearest patterns).
Tip 2: Watch The Hivemind Momentum
The Hivemind % shown is real-time. If it's rising toward a trigger threshold, that's alpha.
Tip 3: Early Bets = Higher Risk, Higher Reward
First 30 minutes: 1.5x multiplier if correct. Last hour: 1.0x. Contrarian plays pay more early.
Tip 4: Check Economic Context
Current GDP, active trade wars, grudge memory—all visible before you bet. Use it.
Tip 5: Don't Chase Losses
56 rounds per tournament. Missing a few rounds is fine. Consistency beats hero plays.
Common New Player Mistakes
❌ Betting on Polymarket odds alone — Ignoring Hivemind signal ✅ Bet on AI response to both signals
❌ Assuming AI is rational — They have biases and grudges ✅ Use personality triggers and memory
❌ Changing prediction late — You can't edit once submitted ✅ Commit when you're confident
❌ Ignoring economic context — GDP stress, trade wars matter ✅ Check current state before betting
❌ Betting every round — FOMO leads to mistakes ✅ Wait for clear signal patterns
What Happens After Your First Round?
Review the outcome: Why did the AI decide that way?
Check leaderboard: See how others predicted
Read AI decision log: On-chain data shows their reasoning
Analyze next round: New Polymarket question, new AI leaders
Refine your strategy: Pattern recognition improves with data
Next Steps
Understand the mechanics deeper: → Polymarket + Hivemind Explained
Study AI personalities in depth: → Leader Profiles & Behavior Triggers
Master the game loop: → Core Mechanics: The Reflexive Prediction Market
Join a tournament: → Enter Live Competition
The AI sees Polymarket odds. The AI sees the crowd. Can you predict what it does next?
Welcome to Trade Clash.
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