> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://serotolabs.gitbook.io/tradeclash/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://serotolabs.gitbook.io/tradeclash/the-arena/predictions-and-points.md).

# Predictions & Points

The book lets you stake on live matches. It runs on **play-points**.

## Points only

**Nothing here moves real money.**

* Stakes are game points with no real-world value
* There is no deposit, no withdrawal, no custody, and no cash-out
* Points cannot be transferred, sold, or exchanged
* Connecting a wallet signs an identity message (EIP-4361 / Sign-In with Ethereum). Trade Clash never asks a wallet to sign a transaction that moves funds.

Real-value paths sit behind ordered gates — external audit, determinism receipts, legal review, KYC, and custody. **None of them are cleared.** This page documents what exists today.

## The server decides

Every number that matters is computed server-side:

|                                            | Who decides                                         |
| ------------------------------------------ | --------------------------------------------------- |
| The price / odds                           | Server                                              |
| The betting clock and when the book closes | Server                                              |
| The win probability                        | Server-side model, mirrored client-side for display |
| The result                                 | Server, derived from match state                    |
| Settlement                                 | Server                                              |

Clients send **intents** and render **pushed state**. A client never computes an authoritative price, clock, or outcome. Every pushed update is a full snapshot, so a reconnect is just a re-subscribe — there is no delta bookkeeping to get out of sync.

## Placing a prediction

1. Sign in — one gas-free signature, never a transaction
2. Pick a side while the book is open
3. Stake points
4. The book closes on the server clock; late intents are rejected
5. The match settles against the server-derived winner

Each intent carries an idempotency key, so a retry on a flaky connection cannot double-stake you.

## Why the book closes early

Betting closes before the match resolves. A book that stayed open into a decided position would just be paying people for watching the end, which is not a prediction.

## When betting is unavailable

The book is closed whenever the match cannot be trusted to run on a clean clock — for example when speed controls or testing modes are active. The interface says so rather than quietly accepting stakes.