Historical: Event Conversion

⚠️ Historical Documentation — Legacy Game Concept

This page describes Trade Clash's original news-driven simulation prototype (2024).

Current Game uses Polymarket + Hivemind signals instead of news event classification.

  • Old concept: News headlines → Event categorization → AI misinterprets

  • Current concept: Polymarket questions → Player predictions → AI processes signals

Kept for reference and potential future integration.

From Headlines to Havoc in Four Easy Steps

This is how "Fed Raises Rates 0.25%" becomes "The Great Currency War of Hour 47."

The Event Type Taxonomy

We classify all news into four categories. AI leaders interpret each category through their own special lens of incompetence.

1. TARIFF_CHANGE Events

What Triggers It:

  • Keywords: "tariff," "trade deal," "duties," "protectionism"

  • Trade announcements

  • WTO rulings

  • Bilateral negotiations

What Should Happen:

  • Modest trade flow adjustments

  • Minor price impacts

  • Diplomatic discussions

What AI Makes Happen:

  • Immediate retaliation (always disproportionate)

  • Alliance restructuring

  • "Economic sovereignty" declarations

  • Trade wars over 2% duties

Example Cascade:

  • News: "US considers 5% steel tariffs"

  • AmeriCorp: "Protecting our workers!"

  • DragonScale: "Economic aggression! 50% tariffs on everything!"

  • EuroPact: "Both sides are wrong. 25% on both."

  • Everyone else: "Guess we're choosing sides now."

2. ENERGY_PRICE_CHANGE Events

What Triggers It:

  • Oil/gas price movements >5%

  • Pipeline announcements

  • OPEC decisions

  • Energy infrastructure news

  • Green energy breakthroughs

What Should Happen:

  • Production adjustments

  • Gradual economic adaptation

  • Efficiency improvements

What AI Makes Happen:

  • Panic hoarding

  • Export bans

  • "Energy independence" in 24 hours

  • Complete economic restructuring

The Energy Panic Playbook:

  • Oil up 10%:

    • SandStorm: "Our moment of glory!"

    • NordFreeze: "Initiate rationing protocols!"

    • TechAsia: "Fusion research gets unlimited funding!"

    • TropicHarvest: "All corn becomes ethanol now!"

3. STABILITY_SHOCK Events

What Triggers It:

  • Keywords: "crisis," "crash," "emergency," "unprecedented"

  • Market volatility spikes

  • Political upheaval

  • Natural disasters

  • Banking concerns

What Should Happen:

  • Measured response

  • Targeted support

  • Coordination with allies

What AI Makes Happen:

  • Currency controls

  • Capital flight restrictions

  • "Emergency powers" forever

  • Blame assignment olympics

Stability Math:

  • VIX up 20% = "Market volatility"

  • AI interpretation = "ECONOMIC APOCALYPSE"

  • Response = "CLOSE EVERYTHING"

4. GEOPOLITICAL_SHIFT Events

What Triggers It:

  • Keywords: "alliance," "sanctions," "summit," "accord"

  • Diplomatic breakthroughs/breakdowns

  • Military movements

  • International agreements

What Should Happen:

  • Gradual relationship adjustments

  • Long-term strategic planning

  • Measured diplomatic responses

What AI Makes Happen:

  • Complete foreign policy reversal

  • "With us or against us" ultimatums

  • Historical grievance resurrection

  • New enemies from old friends

Alliance Roulette:

  • "Historic peace accord signed"

  • Previous enemy: "Best friends forever!"

  • Previous ally: "Betrayed and abandoned!"

  • Everyone else: "Here we go again..."

The Conversion Pipeline

Step 1: Raw News Ingestion

Input: "Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 0.25%, citing inflation concerns"

System Processing:

  • Keywords detected: "Federal Reserve," "rates," "inflation"

  • Category assigned: STABILITY_SHOCK (it's not, but AI doesn't know)

  • Severity scored: 6/10 (reasonable)

Step 2: Context Addition

System Enhancement:

  • Current inflation rates per country

  • Recent monetary policy actions

  • Related news from past 24 hours

What Gets Added:

  • "Context: Global inflation averaging 4.2%"

  • "Previous: ECB held rates steady"

  • "Related: Oil prices up 3% this week"

Step 3: AI Interpretation Layer

Each AI Reads Same Event Differently:

AmeriCorp sees:

  • "Fed attacking our growth model"

  • Severity: 10/10

  • Response needed: IMMEDIATE

DragonScale sees:

  • "Western monetary manipulation"

  • Severity: 8/10

  • Response: Show strength

EuroPact sees:

  • "Coordination opportunity missed"

  • Severity: 5/10

  • Response: Committee meeting

TechAsia sees:

  • "Traditional finance failing"

  • Severity: 7/10

  • Response: More tech subsidies

Step 4: Impact Calculation

Base Impact Formula:

But Really:

Event Conversion Patterns

The Misclassification Comedy

Sometimes our system classifies correctly, but AI reclassifies:

System: "Minor trade adjustment" (TARIFF_CHANGE) AI: "Economic warfare!" (STABILITY_SHOCK)

System: "Oil price normal fluctuation" (ENERGY_PRICE_CHANGE) AI: "Resource weapon deployed!" (GEOPOLITICAL_SHIFT)

The Compound Interpretation

One event becomes multiple crises:

Original: "China-US trade talks resume"

AI Interpretations:

  • DragonScale: "Negotiating from strength" (positive)

  • AmeriCorp: "They blinked first" (positive)

  • EuroPact: "Being excluded!" (negative)

  • TechAsia: "Our markets at risk!" (negative)

  • Everyone else: "Pick sides now!" (chaos)

The Echo Chamber Effect

AI leaders read each other's reactions:

Hour 1: Fed raises rates Hour 2: AmeriCorp announces stimulus Hour 3: DragonScale sees "currency war" Hour 4: EuroPact calls emergency meeting Hour 5: Everyone implementing capital controls Hour 6: "Who started this?"

Your Conversion Exploitation Guide

Reading the Translation

Weak Signal + Strong AI Reaction = Overreaction opportunity Strong Signal + Weak AI Reaction = Delayed disaster incoming Multiple Signals = Cascade guaranteed Conflicting Signals = Maximum chaos

Timing the Interpretation

Minutes 0-15: Raw news hits Minutes 15-30: AI interpretation forms Minutes 30-45: Response crystallizes Minutes 45-60: Execution begins

Your window: Minutes 15-30 when interpretation is forming but response hasn't started.

The Category Arbitrage

Knowing how AI misclassifies helps you predict:

Trade news → Stability shock = Panic policies Energy news → Geopolitical shift = Alliance chaos Political news → Energy crisis = Resource hoarding Any news → Tariff response = Trade war starting

The Beautiful Disasters

When Classification Goes Wrong

The Wheat Tweet Incident: Agricultural report tweeted → Classified as STABILITY_SHOCK → Global food hoarding → Actual stability shock

The Misread Summit: "Leaders meet for coffee" → GEOPOLITICAL_SHIFT → Alliance restructuring → Coffee tariffs somehow

The Decimal Error: "Inflation 2.5%" misread as "25%" → STABILITY_SHOCK → Currency controls → Actual 25% inflation

When AI Makes It Real

Sometimes AI interpretation becomes self-fulfilling:

  1. Minor news breaks

  2. AI overreacts

  3. Creates actual crisis

  4. Original news forgotten

  5. AI blames others for crisis

The Meta Layer

We're not creating fake news. We're showing how real news becomes fake crises through misinterpretation.

Every headline is Rorschach test. Every AI sees their fears. Every fear becomes policy. Every policy becomes your profit.

The Bottom Line

Four event types. Sixteen interpreters. Infinite misunderstandings.

The news is real. The categories are logical. The AI interpretation is insane. The profit opportunities are endless.

We don't manipulate news. We just let AI do what humans do: panic first, think never.

Ready to see where skill meets reward? Continue to Tournament System to understand how chaos becomes cash.

PreviousHistorical: Real-World Feeds

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